Table 3-3-1. Assumed future scenarios.

Name	Aim
Reference scenario	The effect of posing upper limit on carbon dioxide emission on market penetration of hydrogen is examined.
Carbon Tax Scenario	The effect of posing carbon tax on market penetration of hydrogen is examined.
High Fossil Fuel Price Scenario	The effect of jump-up of fossil fuel price on market penetration of hydrogen is examined.
Low Hydrogen Price Scenario	The effect of cost-down in reference hydrogen price on its market penetration is examined.
Low Nuclear Capacity Scenario	The effect of posing severer upper limit on nuclear power capacity on market penetration of hydrogen is examined.

Table 3-3-2 Sensitivity of changes in characteristics of hydrogen utilization technologies

(Note)

1. Results on Reference scenario: price down of hydrogen: 2%/annum, upper limit on CO2, emission :100% of 1990 level 2. Upper row in the medium column is a reference value and lower row shows the condition for sensitivity evaluation. 3. Sensitivity is computed on accumulated consumption of hydrogen.

.	Conditions for sensitivity analysis	Sensitivity on hydrogen consumption
Hydrogen Turbine	Capacity cost: (reference value: 20% more over LNG CC) --> equivalent with LNG CC	+6%
	Efficiency: (reference value: 60%) --> improvement of 5%	+9%
Hydrogen Vehicle	Capacity cost: (reference value: 20% more over conventional gasoline cars) --> equivalent with the conventionals	+100% (Market penetration is small in reference case)
	Efficiency: (reference value: 10% better than gasoline cars) --> improvement of 5%	+20%
Hythane	Capacity cost: (reference value: equivalent with LNG source gas) --> 20% higher than LNG source gas	-9%